Second-Order MaxEnt Predictive Modelling Methodology. I: Deterministically Incorporated Computational Model (2nd-BERRU-PMD)

This work presents a comprehensive second-order predictive modeling (PM) methodology designated by the acronym 2nd-BERRU-PMD. The attribute “2nd” indicates that this incorporates uncertainties (means and covariances) sensitivities of computed model responses to parameters. BERRU stands for “Best- Estimate Results with Reduced Uncertainties” last letter (“D”) in “deterministic,” referring deterministic inclusion computational responses. 2nd-BERRU-PMD is fundamentally based on maximum entropy (MaxEnt) principle. principle contradistinction fundamental underlies extant data assimilation and/or adjustment procedures which minimize least-square sense subjective user-defined functional meant represent discrepancies between measured It shown generalizes extends current while overcoming limitations these procedures. In accompanying (Part II), alternative framework developing “second- order MaxEnt modelling methodology” presented incorporating probabilistically (as opposed “deterministically”)